August Ernemann Report
There is still quite a bit of activity on the horizon for the summer “sales season” in the Aspen Snowmass real estate market and there are already some fascinating trends shaping up for 2022.
Here are my latest observations:
- There have been 10 single family home sales above $30m so far in Aspen this year, those sales account for about 20% of all Aspen single family sales in 2022. That’s amidst a backdrop of about 50 total single family home sales this year compared to about 140 at this same point last year. Historically $30m+ sales account for about 1-2% (and sometimes less) of the number of single family sales in Aspen; last year the $30m+ share was about 5% of the market, so the higher-end of the market has doubled the share of single family sales this year (and is 5x to 10x “normal” years!). It’s hard to fathom how significant a shift this is for any market, and it’s also pushed the average Aspen single family home sale price up to $18m this year!
- A tale of two markets…so far 2022 is tracking way below the number of sales last year in Aspen Snowmass (about a 40% drop in Aspen and 50% drop in Snowmass Village for single family, land and condos/townhomes), while listing inventory has started leveling out in some areas and increasing significantly in others for the first time in 10+ years. However, if you compare 2022 to 2019 (the last pre-COVID full year) the story is a little different:
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- Number of sales through the end of July
- 2019: Aspen 130 and Snowmass Village 96
- 2022: Aspen 124 and Snowmass Village 93
- Number of sales through the end of July
So, 2022 is actually pacing pretty evenly with 2019 (which was considered a “strong” year at the time, but keep in mind that prices have nearly doubled over the course of those three years!!!
- Snowmass Village historically has traded at about a 30% discount to Aspen…these days it’s closer to 50%. And that’s including the premium prices for Base Village sales. Why? Certainly part of the reason is the upper-end of the Aspen market skewing some of the averages (i.e. sales price per sq ft & average sales price) upward significantly. I’m sure there are several other reasons, one theory I have is that Aspen real estate has become a parking place for significant cash over the past two years, huge amounts of money have been “invested” in Aspen properties as just a part of the investment portfolios of the ultra-wealthy. Snowmass Village has surely benefited from this trend as well but the cache of Aspen seems to have been a primary target for many people with cash to invest (keep in mind this is just a theory!).