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June Ernemann Report

And here we go…summer in Aspen Snowmass! Food and Wine weekend is about to kick off the packed summer lineup, town is already buzzing and it seems like another busy real estate summer is already on its way.

It feels to me like we are on the cusp of a shift in the local real estate market, and in fairness I don’t know exactly what the “shift” will translate to but here are my latest observations:

  • Inventory continues to be very low, down 50% in Aspen and 20%+ in SMV compared to last year (this trend seems to be turning toward a slow increase in inventory levels).
  • The sale to list price ratio is historically high at 98% in SMV and over 97% in Aspen – these numbers really can’t go much higher so it’s now a question of how long seller’s will retain this negotiating “power”, but even when this trend starts to drop it will take some time for buyers to truly have any upper hand in negotiations (keep in mind this is an average statistic and each buyer, seller and transaction has its own dynamics).
  • The overall Aspen market is approaching $3k per sq ft on average and SMV is just under $2k per sq ft on average (for all 2022 sales) – SMV is a 33% value compared to Aspen (or put the other way, Aspen is 50% more expensive than SMV). This is a meaningful difference.
  • I never thought I’d say there seems to be a lack of inventory in the $20m-$30m range – only 6+/- listed single family homes in this range with 15+ sales over each of the past two years in this price range.
  • There has already been more sales above $3,500 per sq ft in Aspen this year than all of 2021 (same for $2k per sq ft in SMV) – buyers are no longer fixated on price per square foot, are you?
  • Pay attention to the granular market trends – some neighborhoods have little or no listing inventory, it’s hard to price properties and understand absorption rates when there isn’t inventory to compare to. Does anyone have a spare lot to sell in SMV? There are zero SMV land listings in the MLS today, that translates to seller pricing power.
  • There are about 50% fewer contracts in place in Aspen Snowmass today than there was one year ago, yet the dollar volume of contracts is higher in Aspen than it was last year. Know the difference between what is going “up” and what is going “down”.
  • For sure price and price per sq ft increases continue to dominate the headlines, and for sure prices have not peaked (from a historical perspective), it’s impossible to know when they might peak but it’s also very clear there are increasing macro economic headwinds (never mind the unsustainable percentage price increases over a long period of time).
  • Where is the market going? Don’t be one to just guess or insert your own opinions. The current and recent market statistics and trends are powerful information if you truly understand them and how to apply them. Let this knowledge inform you to make the best decisions possible today.


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