September Ernemann Report

The “summer sales season” is coming to an end and closings are starting to post from July/August contracts. There’s more to come before I can give some more definitive conclusions but for now it’s safe to say 2022 has been a local real estate year with two personalities; the first half of the year continued the trend of strong activity set over the past two years and more recently sales activity in Aspen Snowmass has tapered. The decrease in sales activity has yet to temper prices and there’s still relatively significant interest at the upper price points of the local real estate market.

• Right now I think the primary trend to be tracking is listing inventory, and more importantly how listing inventory relates to sales activity.

• • In Snowmass Village listing inventory has roughly doubled compared to this time last year, and most of that growth is in the condo/townhome segment (roughly 60 listings at the end of August this year compared to 23 last year).

• • In Aspen listing inventory is actually flat for single family homes and vacant lots compared to the end of August last year, but condo inventory has gone up about 50%.

• So, why has listing inventory risen so much in certain areas and segments of the market?

• • The number of sales in August was about 50% the transaction volume compared to August 2021. This decline in sales activity is the primary reason why listing inventory is starting to rise but it’s worth noting that even with a decline in sales activity the Aspen single family home and lot inventory has been holding relatively steady.

• • Prices have increased 20-30%+ in some locations and price points over the past year and buyers are increasingly “pausing” their purchase decisions.

• • The transactions that continue to occur continue to largely be at strong prices relative to the asking price – this creates an interesting dynamic, sellers are generally still holding strong with pricing but fewer sellers are finding buyers compared to a year ago.

• 2022 is on pace to end the year with 40-50%+ fewer transactions than 2021 in Aspen Snowmass, and sales dollar volume is no longer pacing with 2021 at this point in the year. Average sales prices and price per square foot will once again post impressive gains in 2022 compared to the year prior. The next trend to watch over the coming months will be the sale-to-list price ratio to see if sellers continue to hang on tight to their asking prices or if buyers start to get more negotiating power.

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